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Insights from The Mind Money Spectrum Podcast Episode #46

With the 2020 presidential election fast approaching on November 3rd, many high-performance professionals are asking themselves if now is the time to change their investment strategy. The common temptation is to pull back, go to cash, or otherwise react to the uncertainty that elections naturally bring. But as a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor, I want to offer a clear perspective: your election-related financial opportunity likely lies not in sudden market timing but in thoughtful tax and estate planning opportunities that may emerge after the election results are finalized.

In this article, based on concepts discussed in my recent Mind Money Spectrum podcast episode originally published on October 27, 2020, I aim to cut through the noise and help you understand the real financial implications of elections and what practical steps you can take as a high-achieving professional seeking long-term financial security and freedom.

Why You Should Not Change Your Investment Strategy Just Because of an Election

The election season amplifies emotions – uncertainty, fear, and the urge to act. But these feelings rarely translate to smart investment decisions. The data tells a clear story: market outcomes around elections are unpredictable and often counterintuitive.

Looking back at the last six presidential elections, the stock market has, on average, performed well in the six months preceding the election date. For example, even during the controversial 2016 election, when many feared a market crash if Donald Trump were elected, the market rebounded quickly after initial volatility and went on to rally. The lesson here is that trying to time your portfolio based on election predictions is a risky gamble with an odds stack against you.

Moreover, the market is efficient — meaning, all known information, including election outcomes, tends to be priced into asset values almost immediately. If a market reaction to a particular election outcome was predictable, it would already be reflected in prices, leaving little room for early action or advantage.

Instead of reacting to headlines or speculation, your best course of action is to maintain your long-term asset allocation aligned with your personal financial goals and time horizon. Whether you are planning to retire in two decades or buying a house in the next year, your investment strategy should reflect that reality — not shifting political winds.

The Decision Tree: Should You Go to Cash?

A common question clients ask is: “Should I move to cash and wait until after the election before reinvesting?” The immediate answer is typically no. Here is why:

• Market timing is notoriously difficult and often counterproductive. Cash reduces risk but also reduces growth potential, which could set back your long-term goals.
• Your portfolio is built for your time horizon. For short-term needs (like a house down payment in the next 12 months), cash or equivalents make sense already. For long-term goals, staying invested through volatility historically yields better results.
• Emotions should never drive investment decisions. Uncertainty naturally activates fear, but acting out of fear often leads to buying high and selling low—the opposite of the wealth-building discipline.

Financial Opportunities Arise in Tax & Estate Planning — Not Market Timing

While the markets themselves may not offer clear actionable moves tied directly to election outcomes, the political landscape can create meaningful opportunities in other important areas of your financial life — specifically, tax and estate planning.

Tax Planning Considerations

The potential for tax law changes under different administrations can create windows to optimize your tax situation. Looking back, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, passed under the previous administration, lowered personal and corporate tax brackets but is set to expire in 2025. Depending on the election outcome and party control in Congress, tax brackets might rise again, particularly for higher-income tiers.

If you expect higher tax rates in the future, you might consider accelerating some taxable income or strategically executing Roth IRA conversions while rates remain relatively low. However, your individual circumstances — such as your income fluctuations, retirement timing, and current tax rate — are paramount to deciding if this makes sense for you. The timing of Roth conversions, for example, is best driven by your personal tax efficiency, not just speculation regarding political shifts.

Estate Planning Opportunities

Estate laws may experience changes that could impact how wealth is transferred to heirs. Currently, the federal estate tax exemption is historically high (roughly $11.7 million per individual as of 2020). Should the exemption be lowered under new legislation, individuals with estates exceeding that threshold might face significantly higher estate taxes.

Additionally, the step-up in basis rule — where heirs inherit assets with the cost basis “stepped up” to the fair market value at the time of inheritance, often reducing capital gains taxes — has been proposed for repeal under some Democratic tax plans. This could mean heirs might owe capital gains taxes on unrealized appreciation.

For high-net-worth professionals, these potential changes open doors for proactive planning. Strategies could include establishing charitable remainder trusts, making lifetime gifts to reduce taxable estate value, or setting up irrevocable trusts to remove appreciating assets from your estate.

However, estate planning is personal and complex, requiring professional guidance. At the very least, this election cycle is an excellent prompt to review your estate documents and discuss possible impacts with your CPA and estate planning attorney after the election outcomes are clearer.

Practical Steps to Take Now

Given the landscape outlined above, here are actionable steps to consider as you navigate this election season from a financial perspective:

1. Stay the Course With Your Investments: Maintain your asset allocation aligned with your time horizon and risk tolerance. Avoid knee-jerk reactions to election news or market swings.
2. Review Your Tax Situation: Evaluate your current tax strategy with your advisor or CPA. If you anticipate changes in tax law based on election results, consider how that might affect your income, deductions, or retirement savings strategies.
3. Prepare for Estate Planning Review: Schedule a post-election meeting with your estate planning attorney and financial advisor to revisit your documents and strategy. Consider options to safeguard your wealth and minimize unnecessary tax burdens for your heirs.
4. Leverage Volatility as Opportunity: While the market may be uncertain, avoid wholesale exits. Instead, remain open to investing opportunities that align with your plan while focusing on quality stocks and bonds, which I favor over alternative investments.
5. Control What You Can: As the serenity prayer advises, accept what you cannot change, focus on what you can control—your savings rate, diversification, and disciplined investing habits—and plan your financial path accordingly.

Final Thoughts

Elections stir emotions and raise questions, but as evidence and experience reveal, the best financial opportunities for most professionals lie not in rattling your portfolio based on political outcomes but in strategic tax and estate planning decisions reacting to legislative changes.

Don’t let fear-driven anxieties prompt market timing moves that undermine your long-term financial goals. Instead, focus on maintaining a solid investment posture built on quality stocks and bonds, aligned to your personal timeline. Use the calm after the storm — the post-election period — to evaluate potential tax law changes and estate planning moves that might benefit you and your family.

Your journey towards financial security and freedom is not about guessing the political tides but about having a thoughtful, fiduciary-aligned strategy that withstands uncertainty and captures opportunities where they truly exist.

If you’d like help navigating these complex areas or just want to ensure your financial plan is ready for whatever the future brings, feel free to reach out. Together, we can craft a plan that puts you in control and keeps you moving steadily toward your goals.

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Need More Help?

If you’re ever in need of guidance, these blog posts may be of help. But be sure to contact a financial, tax, or legal professional for guidance and information specific to your individual situation. And as always you can reach out to me directly here with questions or concerns about your personal situation.

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Insights from The Mind Money Spectrum Podcast Episode #45

As a fiduciary financial advisor, my role is to help high-performance professionals navigate complex systems — not just financial markets, but also the frameworks that shape the society we live in. One system that subtly impacts your financial future and your freedom as a citizen is the American voting system. Understanding its nuances can illuminate why political outcomes sometimes seem disconnected from the will of the people, and why the incentives within this system often do not align with broad representation.

In this article, inspired by my recent discussion on the Mind Money Spectrum Podcast (originally published October 20, 2020), I’ll break down how our voting system works, why a vote in Pennsylvania could mathematically carry more weight than a vote in California, and how this dysfunction can indirectly affect your financial security and planning. I will also provide actionable insights on how staying informed about such systems can empower your financial freedom.

Why Your Vote Might Not Count Equally — And Why That Matters

The United States does not elect the president through a direct popular vote. Instead, it uses an Electoral College system, a body of 538 electors whose votes determine the presidency. Each state’s allotment of electors is the sum of its U.S. Senators (always 2) plus its Representatives, which vary by population.

This means states with smaller populations often have disproportionately greater influence per voter because they have the minimum 3 electoral votes, even if their populations are very small. For example, Wyoming, with fewer than 600,000 people, has 3 electoral votes — the same number as California’s much larger population of nearly 40 million. Consequently, a single vote in Wyoming carries more weight in the Electoral College than a vote in California.

Furthermore, only a handful of “swing states” with closely divided electorates receive the majority of political campaign attention, while the rest of the country often feels overlooked. So, if you live in a state solidly aligned with one political party, your vote often feels like it “doesn’t matter” practically — a disillusionment that can affect voter participation.

The Financial Ramifications of Voting System Dysfunction

At first glance, the connection between voting systems and your personal finances may not be obvious. But consider this: political decisions directly influence policies on taxes, healthcare, education costs, and economic growth — all critical factors in financial planning.

When elections are determined by a system that does not proportionally represent the population, policies can favor specific regions or demographics disproportionately. For high-performance professionals like you who seek financial security and freedom, this misalignment can mean sudden regulatory changes, unexpected tax reforms, or unanticipated shifts in government-sponsored benefits that disrupt well-laid plans.

For example, if the political power is concentrated in certain states due to the Electoral College, legislation that impacts nationwide financial factors—like retirement account rules, healthcare subsidies, or infrastructure investments—may not reflect the preferences or needs of the majority. This increases uncertainty when you’re making long-term plans, forcing you to adopt more cautious or diversified strategies.

Alternative Voting Systems and Their Potential Financial Impact

Several alternative voting methods exist globally that attempt to provide a more accurate representation of the electorate’s will — two of which deserve special attention:

• Ranked Choice Voting (RCV): Voters rank candidates by preference. If no candidate wins a majority, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated, and their votes redistributed based on second preferences. This iterative process continues until one candidate has a majority. RCV reduces the “spoiler effect” of third-party candidates and encourages campaign positivity and coalition-building.
• Proportional Representation: Rather than winner-take-all, legislative seats are allocated based on the percentage of votes each party receives. This system tends to mirror the diversity of voter preferences more accurately and can promote inclusion of smaller parties and minority interests.

Had systems like these been in place during major elections (e.g., the 2000 election decided by the Florida recount), outcomes might better reflect popular will, possibly avoiding contentious results that create institutional uncertainty.

From a financial standpoint, a voting system that better aligns political representation with public sentiment could create a more stable policy environment. Stability matters a great deal in financial planning—it allows you to forecast rules around taxation, governmental incentives, and social programs with greater confidence.

Barriers to Reform and What It Means For Your Financial Decisions

Despite the potential benefits, reforms to voting systems face significant hurdles. Politicians who benefit from the current structures often resist changes that might reduce their chances of election or their influence. This presents a classic conflict of interest — the very people with the power to change the system may have little incentive to do so.

For professionals aiming for financial independence, this political inertia means you cannot rely on rapid or predictable changes in policy environments. Instead, your best strategy is to anticipate a level of systemic friction and remain adaptable.

Actionable Steps for the Financially Minded Citizen

Considering the nuances and imperfections of the voting system, here are some practical recommendations to enhance your financial security while remaining an engaged and informed citizen:

1. Stay Informed and Vote Strategically

Understanding the weight your vote carries in your particular state can help you focus efforts on local and state elections, which often influence spending and tax policies that impact you immediately. Supporting voting reforms such as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact can also help steer the system toward fairness.

2. Factor Political Risk into Your Financial Planning

Work with your financial advisor to incorporate a political risk overlay in your investment and tax planning. Diversify your portfolio not only across asset classes—stocks and bonds are my preferred tools—but also consider geographic and sector diversification to mitigate policy-driven shocks.

3. Engage with Local Political Processes

Local elections typically have more direct impact on everyday financial factors such as property taxes, school funding, and business regulations. Active participation here can deliver immediate returns on your time investment.

4. Advocate for Transparency and Technology-Driven Solutions

Technologies such as blockchain are being explored to enhance election security and trust. Supporting efforts for transparent and secure voting infrastructure can reduce skepticism and improve turnout, thereby making the system more representative.

5. Plan for Uncertainty and Maintain Flexibility

Given the slow pace of reform and continuing political polarization, it’s wise to maintain contingency plans for unanticipated changes in tax laws, healthcare policies, and retirement regulations. Establishing an adaptable strategy that can pivot as circumstances evolve is essential for long-term financial freedom.

Conclusion

The American voting system, with its Electoral College quirks, first-past-the-post voting, and gerrymandering incentives, remains dysfunctional in providing an accurate reflection of the electorate’s will. Understanding these flaws reveals why your vote’s influence varies and why policy outcomes can sometimes seem disconnected from majority preferences.

For professionals serious about financial security and independence, awareness of these political realities is crucial. By staying informed, engaging strategically both locally and nationally, and working with a fiduciary advisor to build flexible financial plans that anticipate systemic uncertainties, you can continue to pursue the freedom and security you desire.

While politicians may drag their feet on reforming the voting system, you can take control of how these dynamics influence your financial future. Your vote and your financial decisions both matter, so leverage them wisely.

For more insights on achieving financial freedom beyond the numbers, visit InvestingForever.com and stay tuned to MindMoneySpectrum.com.

Originally published on October 20, 2020.

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Need More Help?

If you’re ever in need of guidance, these blog posts may be of help. But be sure to contact a financial, tax, or legal professional for guidance and information specific to your individual situation. And as always you can reach out to me directly here with questions or concerns about your personal situation.

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Insights from The Mind Money Spectrum Podcast Episode #40

As a fiduciary financial advisor focused on helping high-performance professionals like you achieve financial security and freedom, I often get asked about the implications of our ever-growing national debt. Are we mortgaging our children’s futures? Is the government’s love for debt going to come back to haunt us and derail your long-term goals? To answer these questions meaningfully, we must dive into an important economic framework gaining attention recently: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).

MMT challenges conventional wisdom around national debt, federal deficits, and government spending, reshaping how we think about fiscal responsibility—and by extension, how it might affect your personal financial strategy. In this article, I’ll break down what MMT is, the pros and cons it presents, and what actionable takeaways you can implement to steer your financial life with confidence in this uncertain environment.

Understanding the Basics: What Is Modern Monetary Theory?

Simply put, MMT emphasizes that governments like the United States, which issue their own currency (the US dollar), cannot run out of money in the same way a household or business can. This is because the government can technically create currency as needed to meet its obligations, including paying off debt denominated in its own currency. National debt and federal deficits, therefore, are not inherently harmful or indicators of impending collapse.

MMT distinguishes two primary levers governments use to influence the economy:

• Monetary Policy: Managed by the Federal Reserve, this relates to controlling the money supply and interest rates to keep inflation in check and stabilize growth.
• Fiscal Policy: Handled by Congress, this involves government spending and taxation decisions that directly impact budget deficits and surpluses.

According to MMT, as long as inflation remains manageable, deficits can be used prudently to invest in programs that stimulate the economy, reduce unemployment, or improve infrastructure without the immediate need to raise taxes or cut spending.

Can Unlimited Deficits Be a Good Thing?

Stephanie Kelton, author of The Deficit Myth, argues that deficits should not be feared, but rather seen as tools. The government can use its ability to spend to promote economic growth. For example, during downturns, running deficits to fund programs such as federally guaranteed jobs or infrastructure projects can stabilize the economy by maintaining household incomes and consumer spending.

The critical constraint, according to MMT, is inflation—not the size of the debt itself. If the government spends too much money without corresponding growth in goods and services, inflation could rise. And if inflation accelerates unchecked, that eats into the purchasing power of your wealth.

But Should We Trust Congress with This Power?

This is where practicality and fiscal discipline come into play. Unlike the relatively independent Federal Reserve, Congress is a highly politicized body prone to funding pet projects that may not yield economic returns. Unchecked spending, even if theoretically affordable, could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine economic stability.

From a financial advisor’s standpoint, this means vigilance is necessary—not just accepting that deficits don’t matter, but demanding spending decisions be evidence-based and focused on investments that promote sustainable economic and societal growth.

What Does the National Debt Mean for Your Financial Security?

When you hear that the US national debt is over $26 trillion (about $80,000 per citizen), it can sound alarming. But remember, the government is only paying interest on this debt, currently about 1.3%, which is below the rate of inflation. Because the value of the dollar is decreasing with inflation, the real burden of debt is effectively shrinking over time—if economic growth and inflation rates continue to outpace interest rates.

Think of it like a mortgage with very low interest, combined with a rising value in your home. As long as the economy (your “home’s value”) grows steadily, the debt’s impact on your wealth can be manageable.

Practical Steps for Professionals in an Era of Expanding Debt

What should you do to maintain your financial security and freedom given this economic landscape?

1. Focus on Real Asset Growth, Not Just Cash Savings

Because inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, you need to invest in assets that historically outpace inflation—think stocks and high-quality bonds. As someone who prefers these tried and true assets over alternative investments, I emphasize building a diversified portfolio that balances growth and income.

Holding too much cash or low-yielding fixed income can cause your wealth to lose value in real terms during inflationary periods. Align your investments to reflect resilience against inflation.

2. Maintain a Long-Term Perspective on Debt

On a personal level, manage your individual debt prudently, but recognize that the government’s debt operates differently. Don’t assume that increasing national debt will directly translate into immediate personal financial risk such as hyperinflation or government default. Instead, focus on your own debt-to-income ratio, interest rates, and cash flow management to ensure flexibility.

3. Advocate for and Monitor Evidence-Based Fiscal Policies

As an informed citizen and investor, pay attention to government spending decisions. Support initiatives that invest in infrastructure, education, and technology—those that foster real economic growth and increase future tax revenue, making deficits more sustainable.

Be cautious of policies that largely benefit the wealthy without meaningful economic returns, as those widen inequality and can cause longer-term economic distortions that may indirectly affect your portfolio.

4. Plan for Inflation Risks

Even though MMT highlights that the debt itself isn’t the immediate constraint, inflation is the key risk. Strategies such as increasing allocations to inflation-protected securities, commodities, or real estate (within reason and aligned with your risk tolerance) can hedge against inflationary erosion.

5. Build an Emergency Fund with Realistic Inflation in Mind

It is vital to have sufficient liquidity to cover 6–12 months of living expenses, but recognize that cash savings must be actively managed to minimize erosion by inflation. Consider regular reviews of your emergency fund and explore higher-yielding but liquid options.

Looking Ahead: Will Our Children Pay the Price?

MMT forces us to rethink what it means to “owe money” at the national level. The bottom line is: deficits and debt aren’t inherently enemies to your children’s future. Responsible fiscal policy that prioritizes investments with positive return on investment can help create a more prosperous environment.

That said, unchecked spending or ignoring inflationary pressures can threaten economic stability, which ultimately trickles down to individual financial security. As professionals striving for financial freedom, your best defense is not to panic about headlines but focus on building and preserving real wealth sensibly.

Final Thoughts

Modern Monetary Theory attempts to demystify complex macroeconomic issues and reveals opportunities policymakers have to manage economic cycles more adaptively. While MMT suggests that the federal government has more room to maneuver fiscal policy than traditionally thought, it does not negate the need for discipline—both politically and personally.

Your role as a high-performance professional is to be informed, stay true to a well-constructed financial plan, and not be swayed by fear around the national debt itself. Instead, focus on sound investment principles, prudent debt management, and preparing for inflationary scenarios.

After all, your financial plan is about freedom—freedom from worry, freedom to pursue what matters most, and freedom to build a lasting legacy. Understanding macroeconomic realities like MMT equips you to navigate today’s complexities and continue on your path to financial security.

For personalized insights tailored to your unique situation and goals, don’t hesitate to reach out. Together, we can build a roadmap that embraces both opportunities and challenges in our evolving fiscal world.

Published on Tue, 15 Sep 2020 06:00:00 -0400

Press Play to Dive Deeper with The Mind Money Spectrum Podcast

Need More Help?

If you’re ever in need of guidance, these blog posts may be of help. But be sure to contact a financial, tax, or legal professional for guidance and information specific to your individual situation. And as always you can reach out to me directly here with questions or concerns about your personal situation.

Disclaimer